Mar 7, 2011

Big East Tournament Preview and Predictions

It's early March. We're not quite Dancing yet, but we're getting there. All that's left are conference tournaments, aka March Madness for every team not already in the tournament. They can be just as intense as the Big Dance, especially in mid-major conferences where often only one bid is up for grabs.

In terms of quality, though, the Big East is still tops. Here's a preview of this year's Big East Tournament:

Pittsburgh: The regular season champs are playing for a 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament. A win or two here can help solidify that.

Notre Dame: The Fighting Irish can move up to a 1 seed along side the Panthers (or steal Pittsburgh's spot) if they win it all in Madison Square Garden.

Louisville: As the three seed, the Cardinals should be one of the favorites, but they are without leading rebounder Rakeem Buckles for the rest of the season.

Syracuse: The Orange are playing for seeding here, but I can't see them straying to far from a 3 seed come tournament time. A loss in the quarterfinals could drop them to a 4, while advancing further could move them up as far as a 2 seed. On the plus side, Rick Jackson has motivation from only making the All-Big East Second Team, which coach Boeheim wasn't happy about. You know what happened the last time he had a problem with one of his guys being "overrated?" Check out the link on Connecticut's preview.
Warning to the Big East: don't make him angry (Heather Ainsworth/AP)
St. John's: The Red Storm have one of the best résumés in the conference, and have won eight of their past nine Big East games. They could make a run on their home court.

West Virginia: Last year's Big East Tournament champions are coming off two big wins against Connecticut and Louisville, who the Mountaineers could meet in the quarterfinals. They have potential.

Cincinnati: The Bearcats allow the fewest points per game (58.2) among Big East teams, but do they have enough offense?

Georgetown: Chris Wright likely won't be back in time to play in the Big East Tournament. It's hard to see the Hoyas winning without him.

Can the Hoyas win without Wright? (Mitchell Layton/Getty Images)
Connecticut: Could they win it all? The 9 seed in the Big East Tournament. Led by a great scoring guard. Sound familiar? It's been done before. The Huskies could do it again.

Villanova: The Wildcats lost their last four games of the regular season, forcing them to play on day one of the tournament. The two Corey's, Stokes and Fisher, must take control if Villanova is going to advance.

Marquette: They are predicted by most analysts as being in the NCAA Tournament as of now, but if the Golden Eagles don't win a game or two they could risk missing out on the Dance.

Can Kemba Walker pull a Gerry McNamara? (Al Behrman/AP)
Seton Hall: They've played inspired basketball as of late, with wins against St. John's and Marquette. When Jeremy Hazell is on, anything is possible for the Pirates.

Rutgers: They beat Villanova earlier this year on the "prayer in Piscataway" but don't have much else to show for themselves.

Providence: They will go as far as Marshon Brooks will take them.

South Florida: The Bulls have a solid front court with Augustus Gilchrist and Jarrid Famous, but they'll need great guard play to pull off an upset.

DePaul: One win in Big East play. Playing without its leading scorer. Enough said.

And because I like to torture myself, I will now predict the winner of all 15 Big East Tournament games:


First Round:
  • 9 Connecticut over 16 DePaul: Kemba Walker could win this one by himself.
  • 10 Villanova over 15 South Florida: The Wildcats should win even if Corey Stokes doesn't play.
  • 11 Marquette over 14 Providence: Marquette will solidify their spot in the NCAA Tournament with a win here.
Second Round:
  • 9 Connecticut over 8 Georgetown: Kemba takes control, outplays Hoya guards.
  • 12 Seton Hall over 5 St. John's: Jeremy Hazell outduels Dwight Hardy as Hall beats the Johnnies for the second time in less than a week.
  • 7 Cincinnati over 10 Villanova: Cincinnati's defense clamps down on Villanova, proving the combination of a bear and a cat is greater than a simple wildcat.
  • 6 West Virginia over 11 Marquette: Mountaineers exact revenge on Marquette for New Year's Day loss.
Quarterfinals:
  • 1 Pittsburgh over 9 Connecticut: Walker can't overcome Pitt's advantage inside.
  • 4 Syracuse over 12 Seton Hall: Syracuse proves 22-point beat down in the Carrier Dome was an aberration.
  • 2 Notre Dame over 7 Cincinnati: Too much offensive firepower from Notre Dame for Cincinnati to overcome.
  • 6 West Virginia over 3 Louisville: The Mountaineers limit the Cardinals' three point shooting again, advancing to the semifinals.
Semifinals:
  • 4 Syracuse over 1 Pittsburgh: A full Syracuse lineup beats up the "physical" Panthers. 
  • 2 Notre Dame over 6 West Virginia: Notre Dame proves to be a more complete team, beating West Virginia in nearly every aspect.
Final:
  • 2 Notre Dame over 4 Syracuse: I think this would be a great final to watch, one that could go either way. But what it comes down to is that Fighting Irish have the definitive go-to, crunch time scorer in Ben Hansbrough that the Orange lack. He scored only 12 points in their previous meeting, I think he'll get more here and lead Notre Dame to a top seed in the NCAA Tournament.



2 comments:

  1. With Villanova losing in the first round of the Big East Tournament, will they even make the Dance?

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  2. They've clearly dropped off, but I still think the Wildcats will make the NCAA's. They have 5 wins against AP top 25 teams. Remember, 37 at-large bids are given. I think Villanova is one of the top 37 teams to not win a conference tournament.

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